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Bank of Canada may raise rates October 28: what a hike costs

Rate decision

Bank of Canada decides Wednesday

The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on October 28.

Where we stand

Rate sits at 2.25%

The policy rate has stayed at 2.25% since October 2025.

The poll

Most economists expect a hike

Nineteen of 34 economists polled by Reuters expect a hike to 2.50%.

The shift

A sharp reversal

In the prior poll, 80% expected the rate to stay put through 2026.

The driver

Inflation hit 3.1%

September inflation sits just above the Bank's 1% to 3% target range.

Under the surface

Gas did the damage

Gas prices rose 27.8% in a year, while inflation without gas slowed to 2.2%.

What it costs

Prime would hit 4.70%

Prime now sits at 4.45%. A quarter-point hike would lift it to 4.70%.

Mortgage math

$71 more a month

A hike adds about $71 a month to a $500,000 variable mortgage.

The other side

Jobs argue for a hold

Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, and unemployment rose to 6.5%.

Decision day

Watch the forecasts

The Bank also publishes its Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday.

What next

December stays live

The last decision of 2026 comes on December 9, whatever happens Wednesday.

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