Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers: Round 7 preview
Web StoryWatch this story in 15 seconds →Key takeaways
- Melbourne United host the New Zealand Breakers on Monday 2 November at 7:30 PM AEDT, live from John Cain Arena.
- United are chasing three straight wins behind Cole Anthony and Josh Oduro, who have combined for 50 points twice in a row.
- The Breakers have lost three straight games but only by 15 points combined, so this could be closer than it looks.
Melbourne United play the New Zealand Breakers on Monday night. The game tips off at 7:30 PM AEDT at John Cain Arena in Melbourne. It is the final game of NBL27 Round 7 and lands on Melbourne Cup Eve, with a public holiday the next day.
What happened this week
Melbourne United are starting to look like themselves again. They have won two games in a row after a slow start to the season. On Saturday night they beat the Cairns Taipans, and it was their highest-scoring win of the season.
Before that, they beat the Sydney Kings.
The star of the run is Cole Anthony. The import guard has been the most dangerous scorer in the team. He and big man Josh Oduro have been a handful for every defence.
The pair combined for 50 points against Cairns. That was the second game in a row in which they hit 50 together.
Veteran Joe Ingles is adding a lot off the bench. He scored 16 points against Cairns and hit four three-pointers. His experience and passing have helped the team flow better on offence.
The numbers show the lift: United have averaged more than 106 points across their last three games.
New Zealand are going the other way. The Breakers have lost three games in a row. Coach Gordon Herbert said after Friday night that his team needs to show more effort on the court.
Their latest loss came against the Adelaide 36ers, where Bryce Cotton got hot late and pulled the game away.
But the Breakers are not a lost cause. Their three losses have come by a combined 15 points. They have been in every game.
One or two plays went the other way each time. A team that keeps it close is usually one small fix away from winning.
The Cairns Taipans took on these same Breakers last weekend in a Sunday game that went down to the wire.
The players who will decide it
The most fun battle is the one between the two import duos. For Melbourne, it is Cole Anthony and Josh Oduro. For New Zealand, it is Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Sam Mennenga.
Whichever pair has the better night will likely win the game.
Mennenga has been superb all season for the Breakers. He is averaging 23.5 points and 9 rebounds per game. He is also shooting about 51 percent from three-point range.
That is a rare mix of inside scoring and outside shooting. Big men who can do both are very hard to guard.
Jackson-Cartwright is a big boost because he is back from injury. Before he was hurt, he scored at least 20 points in each of his first five games. He also averaged more than 9 assists per game.
He gives the Breakers a second ball-handler who can score and create.
Melbourne have their own weapons beyond Anthony and Oduro. Chris Goulding has returned to the line-up and adds more shooting. Joe Ingles brings calm and smart passing off the bench.
The team finally looks settled after the early-season mix-ups.
Injuries matter here too. Melbourne are without Sean Macdonald, who is out for the season with an ACL injury. The Breakers are missing Josiah-Jordan James with a hamstring injury and Preston Le Gassick with a neck injury.
Both teams are used to playing without them by now.
The Breakers showed their fight in a one-point thriller against the Kings earlier this season, and that game is a reminder of how dangerous they can be when it is close.
Why it matters
This is the first time these two teams have met this season. So neither side has a read on the other yet. Melbourne get to test their new form against a real opponent.
New Zealand get to see if their close losses were bad luck or a real problem.
A win would move Melbourne above a 50 percent win rate for the first time this season. That is a big moment for a team that started so slowly. Three wins in a row would tell the league that United are back.
For the Breakers, this game is about belief. Another close loss would hurt. A win in Melbourne would flip the mood of their whole season.
They have the talent to do it, but they need to close a game out.
The game also starts a huge week for United. They play at home again on Saturday 7 November, when the Brisbane Bullets visit John Cain Arena. The club is offering 20 percent off tickets for both home games.
Two home wins in a week would set up their November nicely.
More NBL action is coming thick and fast. The Bullets face the Taipans in a rematch preview later this week, and that result could shift the early-season pecking order too.
What to watch for
Watch the pace of the game. Melbourne want to run and score. New Zealand need to slow it down and make it a half-court game.
If the Breakers let United get out and run, the home crowd will get loud and it could get away from them.
Watch the turnover count. The Breakers have enough scorers to keep up, but they must look after the ball. Sloppy turnovers lead to easy points for Melbourne.
New Zealand cannot afford to give away easy baskets on the road.
Watch the bench minutes. Melbourne have fresh legs after their road trip, but it is a quick turnaround from Saturday night in Cairns. Ingles and the bench need to carry some of the load early.
For New Zealand, the bench has to help Mennenga and Jackson-Cartwright stay fresh for the finish.
Watch the final five minutes. That is where the Breakers have lost games all month. They have been close enough to win but have not finished.
If it is tight late, the pressure is on New Zealand to show they can close.
What happens next
The game is on ESPN in Australia. Fans can also follow live scores and stats on the free NBL app. Tip-off is 7:30 PM AEDT on Monday 2 November at John Cain Arena.
Melbourne start as clear favourites, and the bookmakers have them well ahead. But the 7.5-point handicap line is a nod to how close New Zealand have been. The Breakers have not been blown out all month.
If they clean up their turnovers and finish a quarter strongly, an upset is not out of the question.
Either way, the winner gets more than two points. Melbourne get a streak and a statement. New Zealand get relief and a reset.
On Melbourne Cup Eve, with a big home crowd expected, this should be a fun one to watch.
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